Why The 2020 Election Is The Democratic Party’s To Lose
Since the first confirmed case of COVID-19 on January 20th earlier this year, the United States has continued to see the positive cases grow with over 4,000,000 known cases across the 50 states and territories. Due to this dramatically increasing public threat, many political scientists and analysts are seeing a dramatic shift in public opinion on how the local, state, and federal governments across the country have handled their responses. This has led to the belief that the election in November is no longer a race for Republicans’ to win, but for Democrats’ to lose.
According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, an estimated 70% of Americans say they are very or somewhat fearful that they or someone in their family will contract the virus. 87% of Americans also reported being very or somewhat concerned about the economy. With such a large number of Americans seeing the current state of the country unfavorably, one can only assume that the People will blame the man in the People’s House.
This hasn’t been the case, which is evident based on the partisan split in the country. When looking at the divide between Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, you can see that those who support the President’s response are overwhelmingly conservative.
Republicans overwhelmingly support the President’s response to COVID19 while only 1/3 of Independents and less than 1 in 10 Democrats support the President’s response. So how exactly does this correlate to an election that is just over 100 days away?
It should come as no surprise that if things remain unchanged, the coronavirus pandemic will continue to be the issue that takes center stage when voters enter the voting booth whether that be in person or by casting their ballot by mail. If the election were to be held today, it is expected that the presumptive Presidential nominee Joe Biden would win the Presidency with well over 375 electoral college votes. How is this possible? Biden is beating Trump in many battleground states that he won in 2016 including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. Biden also leads Trump in current polling in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for decades, Texas.
With such a large lead in the polls, I am making the brave assumption to say that this election will be the Democrats’ to lose and not the Republicans’ to win. Incumbent President Trump faces a near-record low approval rating (40.2%-55.7%) and even lower approval ratings are seen amongst some of the most vulnerable House and Senate GOPers. In the 2020 cycle, Class 2 of the Senate is up for election with 23 Republicans and just 12 Democrats facing voters in November. With a 47 to 53 split, Democrats need to flip either 3 or 4 seats to see a completely blue legislature. In the event only 3 seats flip, the Vice President would cast the tie-breaking vote if it was needed in their role as the President of the Senate
The most competitive seats in the Senate include Gary Peters (D-MI), Doug Jones (D-AL), Cory Gardner (R-CO), David Perdue (R-GA), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Susan Collins (R-ME), Steve Daines (R-MT), Thom Tillis (R-NC), Martha McSally (R-AZ), Kelly Loeffler (GA), an open formerly Republican seat in Kansas, and a highly watched contest including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel (R-KY). 6 of these contests are considered to be a true toss-up with 2 others leaning Democrat and the remaining 4 either leaning Republican or likely Republican.
Many are anticipating Senator Jones to lose his seat in Alabama as his win can likely be attributed to the widespread disdain for his opponent Roy Moore in their December 2017 special election. With this loss, Democrats could end up with a solid 58 seat majority (including the 2 Independent Senators). While 58 is a highly optimistic number, many of the Senate seats up for grabs are held by current incumbents who are highly unpopular with voters back home.
While it remains to be seen how the coronavirus pandemic will impact the 2020 election, it can be said that it will all come down to how seriously Republicans take the pandemic in the future or if they continue to let thousands of Americans become infected and later die. The hard truth is that a vaccine is still in development and no widespread therapeutic is available to treat the symptoms of the virus. If one thing is certain, election night 2020 will come down to one key issue with Democrats being on the winning side unless the Trump administration decides to change course.
